A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
